Tuesday, December 8, 2009

12/08 - Dow Jones completes a symmetrical zig-zag

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has stalled near an equality target at 10495 (1.000x of 6470 to 8878 from 8087), suggesting the possible completion of a symmetrical zig-zag correction off 6470 (the March 2009 low). When comparing the first and last waves of the zig-zag, the latter part has taken 21 weeks to complete, compared to the initial wave's 14 weeks. This implies that the current rally is slowing down, which is characteristic of a weaker trend. Daily and weekly indicators are also deteriorating. The 9 &18-day moving averages are poised for a bearish cross. Daily bearish RSI and Stochastic divergence (23 November-04 December highs) and weekly bearish RSI divergence (21 September - 04 December highs) could induce a pullback that would highlight bear trendline resistance (connecting the 19 May 2008 and the 02/04 December highs). This would stage a retest of 10120 (21 Oct former high) ahead of a possible deeper correction towards 9999 (61.8% of 9679/10517). A sustained clearance of 10480 (bear trendline) negates the pullback scenario and suggests a possible extension towards 10561 (03 October 2008 intraday high).