Thursday, July 16, 2009
07/16 - EUR/USD rejects at the top end of it's range
The EUR/USD rejected at the top end of the latest range after probing above trendline resistance. A weekly close above 1.4170 and a daily close above 1.42 suggests a bullish extension that would target 1.46, the next fibonacci retracement zone. Although, both daily & weekly RSI's suggests further strength ahead, the failure at 1.4170 and the inability to substantially clear 1.4130 (trendline) indicate that the near-term trend may be exhausting. Moreover, 4-hour bearish MACD divergence could coerce the EUR/USD back towards the middle of the recent range. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD has stalled at 1.1143 (key fibonacci retracement) and Gold has paused at the 50-day MA. If the US Dollar Index can maintain support at 79.18 (78.6% retracement) then it is likely to retest the 80 region again.