Thursday, March 5, 2009

03/05 - November's high reverts to first support



The Dollar Index continues to maintain it's uptrend within a rising wedge. Although, daily RSI & MACD demonstrate negative divergence, normally indicative of a reversal, the Greenback remains buoyed by risk aversion and equity market weakness. The next upside target is 89.87, the 38.2% retracement of the entire bear market campaign. Meanwhile, the November high of 88.46 has reverted to support and is now the critical pivot to watch. It will take a convincing break below this key level (roughly 1.2660 EUR/USD) in conjunction with a stock market reversal to divert the market's attention back towards wedge support near 87.00.