02/18 - Probing the 88 handle

The US Dollar Index is now probing the key 88 handle since breaking out of a bull pennant earlier this week. With daily RSI in such overbought territory and MACD demonstrating possible bearish divergence, a possible corrective relapse looms. As mentioned in prior posts, it will take a convincing loss of the 20-day MA to alter the bullish structure.

[STRATEGY] TAKE PROFIT ON LONG POSITION (SHORT EUR/USD)

My latest NZD/USD analysis:

http://www.forexpros.com/technical/analysis/nzd%2Fusd%3A-falling-wedge-forming-again-18744

02/17 - Bull pennant breakout refocuses the 88.00 region

The US Dollar Index has broken out of a bull pennant on the back of the Euro's weakness overnight, which stemmed from Moody's downgrade warning of East European banks. This has enabled the Greenback to approach the key 88 handle, near the key fibonacci retracment (78.6% of 92.58-70.49). While, daily RSI indicate a possible corrective relapse, only a convincing loss of the 20-day MA will shift focus back to the downside.

[STRATEGY] REMAIN LONG (SHORT EUR/USD)

02/11 - Approaching pennant resistance

The US Dollar Index has rebounded off the 20-day MA and is now trading within a bull pennant, typically a trend continuation pattern. Clearing 86.200 (pivot & pennant resistance) will expose the 88 handle, the level which capped last autumn's rally. A convincing loss of the 20-day MA and pennant support is required to shift focus back to the downside.

[STRATEGY] LOOK TO BUY (SELL EUR/USD) {email for entry/exit points}

For my latest Forexpros.com analysis.....

http://www.forexpros.com/technical/analysis/nzd%252Fusd%253A-remains-supported-by-corrective-trendline-18239

02/10 - Risk Aversion reinvigorates the Greenback

The US Dollar Index has reversed recent losses including a brief loss of 20-day MA support due to a fresh bout of risk aversion. The uncertainty and lack of specifics by Treasury Secretary Geithner's bank bailout plan has spoiled the market's appetite for risk, once again buoying the US Dollar and Treasury prices. Also, rumors of Russian debt postponement has cast a shadow on the Euro. If 86.200 (pivot & pennant resistancce) can now be convincingly cleared, a move towards the 88 handle cannot be ruled out. A sustained loss of the 20-day MA is now needed to refocus the 50-day MA.

[STRATEGY] TOOK PROFIT ON LONG POSITION, LOOK TO SELL EUR/USD (email for entry/exit points)

For my latest Forexpros.com analysis.....

http://www.forexpros.com/technical/analysis/nzd%20usd:-loses-ascending-trendline-support-18116

02/09 - Loses 20-day MA support

The Dollar Index failed to clear the 86.20 pivot (78.6% of the 88.25-77.69 decline, underpinning today's loss of 20-day MA support. With risk aversion easing globally and the postponement of the Treasury's bank rescue plan, the Greenback has fallen on it's back foot as expected, enabling a number of currencies to break through key resistance vs the US Dollar. If this trend continues, the Dollar Index should next test the mid 83 region, where a key fibonacci retracement and the 50-day MA lie. Once again, only a convincing break above 86.20 will shift the outlook back to the upside .

[STRATEGY] REMAIN SHORT (LONG EUR/USD) (email for entry/exit points)

02/06 - The 20-day MA holds the key

The Dollar Index has once again probed 86.20, a key fib (78.6% of the 88.25-77.69 decline). This time, however, daily studies such as MACD & RSI indicate waning momentum. Although, the overall structure remains bullish while above 20-day MA support, the Greenback stands to lose with risk aversion easing. Risk appetite's "technical" shift can be seen by the performance of the Yen and Global equity markets over the last few sessions. If this trend continues, the US Dollar Index should break below the 20-day MA (now at the 85 handle) and immediately test the 50-day MA. If, however, a rally can convincingly break above 86.20, then all bets are off.

[STRATEGY] LOOK TO SELL (BUY EUR/USD) (email for entry/exit points)

For my latest Forexpros.com analysis.....

http://www.forexpros.com/technical/analysis/nzd:-falling-wedge-break-out-probes-the-20-day-ma-17902

02/05 - Check out FOREXPROS.com for my latest

Reuter's quoted me yesterday regarding a technical shift in risk appetite. Today's follow-thru only confirmed what I said yesterday. The USD/JPY cleared the 20-day MA today and the market has taken notice. Also contributing was half a yard (90.00 strike) USDJPY option expiry just minutes prior. Here is my latest view on the Kiwi (NZD/USD)......

http://www.forexpros.com/technical/analysis/positive-divergence-to-buoy-a-falling-wedge-break-out-17826